Why Virginia electricity rates keep rising

For most of the 2010s Virginia electricity was boring. The statewide residential average moved from 10.45¢ in 2010 to 12.03¢ in 2020, +15.1% in ten years, which was slower than general inflation over the same stretch. Then it stopped being boring.

What the EIA data shows

• 2015 → 2025: 11.37¢ → 15.28¢, +34.4% total, about 3.0% a year.
• 2020 → 2025: 12.03¢ → 15.28¢, +27.0% in 5 years, about 4.9% a year.
• Latest month: 17.55¢ in July 2026, +11.2% versus the same month a year earlier.
• Versus the country: the US average went 12.65¢ → 17.33¢ over 2015–2025. Virginia is still below the national average, and the gap widened over that period (1.28¢ in 2015, 2.05¢ in 2025).

Among the utilities that report to EIA, the biggest one-year moves in the latest data were ANEC (+10.6%), Dominion (+7.9%), ODP (+7.3%), VTES (+7.3%). Each utility's page has its ten-year history.

Statewide figures: EIA-861M monthly, aggregated to calendar years (revenue-weighted, Virginia and US). Utility figures: EIA-861 annual. Inflation comparison: BLS CPI-U rose roughly 19% over 2010–2020.

Three forces

1. Wholesale power and capacity costs

Virginia sits in PJM, the regional grid market. Utilities buy or generate energy and must also buy "capacity," a payment to keep enough power plants available. Both have been more expensive in recent years, and both pass through to customers: at Dominion through the fuel factor and riders, at cooperatives through a power-cost adjustment that changes several times a year. This is the part of the bill nobody at the utility sets directly, and the part that moves fastest.

2. Load growth, led by data centers

Northern Virginia is the largest data-center market in the world, and the load keeps growing. Serving it requires new generation and new transmission. Who pays how much is a live fight at the State Corporation Commission, but new wires and plants get recovered from customers over time, and the trend in the series above reflects some of that. Virtue Solar has written about the data-center angle specifically.

3. Grid investment and riders

Grid hardening, undergrounding, smart meters, offshore wind, nuclear license extensions: each gets its own rider, approved by the SCC, added to the bill. Riders are the reason the "rate" you see in a tariff sheet never matches what you actually pay per kWh. That is also why every number on this site is revenue divided by kWh sold: the all-in price, riders and all.

What it means for a homeowner

The honest framing is not "rates will go up X%". Nobody knows X. The framing is: a solar system converts a variable cost that has grown 3.0% a year for a decade into a fixed cost paid up front. The calculator has a slider for X. Try 0%, try 3%, try what the last five years did. The break-even year moves, and that movement is the whole decision.