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Solar savings calculator for Virginia homes: system size, cost and break-even year

Enter your monthly bill. Add your ZIP code to use your utility's average rate and your area's PVWatts output. The rate-increase slider sets how fast the utility price grows in the estimate.

Step 1 · Your bill

Source: Virginia average, 12 months to July 2026. Edit it to match your bill ÷ kWh.

Step 2 · Your roof

Sun data: Virginia median (PVWatts) · 1,366 kWh per kW per year

Step 3 · Rate growth

Advanced assumptions

Federal tax credit: 0% for homeowner-owned systems. The 30% federal residential clean energy credit (Section 25D) ended for expenditures made after December 31, 2025, which the IRS treats as the date installation is completed. Homeowner-owned systems installed in 2026 or later do not receive it. This is not tax advice. Confirm your own situation with a tax professional. All assumptions.

Policy facts reviewed 2026-10-06.

9.6 kW

System size

13,107 kWh/yr usage

$26,688

Estimated cost

at $2.78/W, cash

$2,370

Year-1 savings

100% of usage offset

10.3 yrs

Break-even

cumulative savings = cost

$71,195

25-year savings

bills avoided + SRECs, nominal

$44,507

Net benefit

savings minus cost, undiscounted

Cumulative cost: staying on the utility vs. going solarTwo lines over 25 years. Where the solar line drops below the utility line is the break-even year.$0k$20k$40k$60k$80kNowYr 5Yr 10Yr 15Yr 20Yr 25Break-even · year 10.3Utility bills, no solarSolar system + remaining bills
A higher rate-increase setting steepens the utility line and brings the break-even year forward. Lifetime production: 308,903 kWh.

This is a planning estimate, not a quote. Shade, panel sizes and your utility's fixed charges change the result. Already have a quote? Check it against benchmarks.

Get a quote for this system
Year-by-year table
YearEnergy rate ¢/kWhSolar kWhBill, no solarBill with solarSavingsCumulative
115.113,114$2,160$180$2,370$2,370
215.613,048$2,219$189$2,420$4,790
316.012,983$2,281$200$2,441$7,231
416.512,918$2,344$211$2,492$9,723
517.012,853$2,409$223$2,545$12,269
617.512,789$2,475$236$2,600$14,868
718.012,725$2,544$249$2,655$17,524
818.612,661$2,615$263$2,712$20,236
919.112,598$2,688$277$2,771$23,007
1019.712,535$2,763$293$2,831$25,838
1120.312,472$2,841$309$2,532$28,370
1220.912,410$2,921$326$2,595$30,965
1321.512,348$3,003$343$2,660$33,625
1422.212,286$3,088$362$2,726$36,350
1522.912,225$3,175$382$2,793$39,144
1623.512,164$3,265$402$2,863$42,007
1724.212,103$3,357$423$2,934$44,941
1825.012,042$3,453$446$3,007$47,948
1925.711,982$3,551$469$3,082$51,029
2026.511,922$3,652$494$3,158$54,187
2127.311,863$3,756$519$3,237$57,424
2228.111,803$3,863$546$3,317$60,741
2328.911,744$3,974$574$3,400$64,141
2429.811,686$4,088$604$3,484$67,625
2530.711,627$4,205$634$3,571$71,195

Energy rate = your all-in rate minus the fixed-charge share, escalated each year. Bills include the fixed charges. Dollars are nominal (not discounted).

How it works

How the calculator works

  1. Usage = bill ÷ rate. The rate is an all-in average, so this is accurate for annual math even though summer and winter bills differ.
  2. System size = usage ÷ production per kW. Production comes from NREL's PVWatts for your area (south-facing, 25° tilt), scaled by orientation and shade factors.
  3. Cost = size × $/W. Minus the federal credit, which is currently 0% for homeowner-owned systems.
  4. Each year: the energy price grows by the slider; panels lose 0.5%; production offsets usage one-for-one under Virginia net metering; fixed charges stay on the bill; SRECs add a little.
  5. Break-even is the year cumulative savings pass the system cost. The chart shows the same thing as two cumulative-spend lines crossing. Dollars are nominal, not discounted.

Every constant is listed on the methodology page. See where your rate sits on the rate tracker, what a kilowatt makes in your town, and the payback for an average home at each utility in Is solar worth it in Virginia?

Questions

Questions about the calculator

Where does the electricity rate come from?
By default, Virginia's statewide residential average over the 12 months to July 2026 (16.48¢) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Enter a ZIP and pick your utility to switch to its latest annual average. Both are all-in averages before taxes (energy, delivery, riders and fuel adjustments divided by kWh sold), which is the right number for solar math. Co-op rates change mid-year, so the best input is your own bill divided by your own kWh.
Why is there no federal tax credit in the estimate?
The 30% federal residential clean energy credit (Section 25D) ended for expenditures made after December 31, 2025, which the IRS treats as the date installation is completed. Homeowner-owned systems installed in 2026 or later do not receive it. Leased and power-purchase-agreement systems are owned by the installer or financier, who may still claim the separate commercial credit (Section 48E) subject to its own construction deadlines and sourcing rules; whether any of that reaches the homeowner depends on the contract. This is not tax advice. Confirm your own situation with a tax professional.
What is the "rate increases per year" slider doing?
It escalates the energy part of the utility price every year of the 25-year analysis. Virginia's average residential price rose about 3% a year compounded from 2015 to 2025, and faster in the most recent years. Set it to 0% for the most conservative case. The break-even year depends on this number more than on any other input.
How is the system sized?
Your annual usage is your bill ÷ rate × 12. The system is sized to produce 100% of that using PVWatts production for your area, adjusted for roof direction and shade, capped at 25 kW. Real designs round to whole panels and work around vents and setbacks.
What does the cost include?
A turnkey, roof-mounted system at $2.78 per watt DC: NREL's minimum sustainable price for its 8 kW residential benchmark (Q1 2025), the lowest price a solvent installer can sustain. Real cash quotes in Virginia often run higher, and ground mounts, batteries, main-panel upgrades and re-roofing cost extra. Adjust the $/W slider to match a real quote, or check the quote itself.
What do "fixed monthly charges" do?
Your all-in rate is your bill divided by your kWh, so it already contains the basic customer charge. Solar cannot avoid that charge, so the calculator removes it from the rate it applies to the kWh your panels replace. Raising the fixed charge lowers savings a little and lengthens the break-even.
Is this a quote?
No. It is an estimate built on published assumptions that you can change. A quote comes from a site visit, a shade analysis and a design. The button under the chart sends your inputs to a Virginia installer for a designed quote.